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America & Black Swans

April 30th, 2010

I’m currently reading “The Black Swan” by Taleb (a very interesteing read).  The basic summary of the book is that major, catastrophic events can and do take place on a regular basis without any ability to see them coming.  Taleb goes through an indepth analysis with a large focus on human psychology to explain why we fail to see these enormous events coming.  Black Swan events have been the financial crisis in 2008, September 11th, etc.

As I’m reading this book, I can’t help but think of America and the prevailing attitude of most Americans that nothing catastrophically bad can happen on any large scale to America.  Sure we have our bumps in the road like Hurricane Katrina and the Los Angeles riots in the 90s, but those are confined to specific regions or cities.  Anything on a large scale that has far reaching and long lasting devastation is simply not going to happen here.  This plays into the Black Swan Theory perfectly and eerily.

The survivalist community often discusses TEOTWAWKI.  This refers to a completely different world than what we know now.  The cause of this shift might be a war, a bomb, an economic collapse, something, but nevertheless, it is a time when things are drastically different.  I’m also currently reading “One Second After,” by Forstchen which describes a man’s struggle following an EMP attack here in America (I read multiple books simultaneously).

These events are unimaginable for 99% of America and are not even considered.  We do not realize how fragile our communities, our existence and our systems that we depend on really are.  When you get “awakened” to these realities, it really changes you and forces you to think differently.  As somebody with little children, I probably think about these things even more than those without children.

Reading “The Black Swan” is a must read for anyone in the survival community.  It is an unusual read and a fairly difficult one, but it sheds light on America today in my opinion, especially when it comes to possible societal collapse which most Americans view as an impossibility.

America

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